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Sunday, December 13, 2009

專家

星期六同朋友們吹水,有人話我的分析好表面。這個我沒有意見,但很多專家都不能預測股市,所以我好大可能會跑輸大市。兩人都覺買指數是最好的,買個股好易被市場比下去,這點我同意,因為個股可能有一個時期跑輸大市。如果要賺多點錢,我覺得要賺多點錢不下苦工,時常望下自己組合股票的走勢和新聞分析,這個多勞多得好正常。至於專家講的野不聽也罷,通常都亂講。

市場要預測不但是方向,還有是時間性,這點是最困難。有關銀行股及保險股未來的走勢,我暫時還是相信加息對初期有關的股有利。想知加息對息差的影響自己找找..

其實好多所謂財務知識根本不能用工賺錢的利器。好似財務知識那些P/E , P/B , NAV 甚至DCF等等都只係假設或者用之前的數據計出來。圖表、資金流、期指倉等等都係估估下。自己覺得那招適合自己便可以拿來用,根本不需想太多。書本上好多知識(尤其係教科書)都不能能到人賺錢,基 金經理好多都蝕錢。要將自己在書上讀的知識放在市場上賺錢,要花好多時間及金錢,好多時很多人以為讀了書便可以賺到錢。市場上好多都係估,太驚是不行,太有信心又不行,自己想方法找個適合的位置才可。我家人有玩過外滙、股仔、warrant 等等,只要有一範賺得多便可以了。[我都唔夠佢地進取]

期指有一招。全世界的股市已經一體化,但家會見好多時升跌一齊。今次我講A股及恒指轉倉時的招數。就係A股升,恒指跌 (轉倉時),那麼下個月係好倉,反之係淡倉。其次係轉倉時第一日及第三日時差點可以判斷係好倉還是淡倉。這些招數係書到一定找不到,有沒有用? 遲點便知道......

暫時大市都係向上,個市應該係來緊個星期不斷尋頂。

2 comments:

  1. I hear many funds have began year end profit taking.Also,USD seems to be rebounding pretty strong.
    Some people are talking about a correction to hsi 19500 on discuss....what do u think?

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  2. 1) I don't think fund profti taking is that aggressive. At least won't have big drop, cos they are in holiday.
    2) USD rebound maybe reflect this wed Fed annoucement. This friday US futures settelment day. Let see what will happen later.
    3) If now is in a correction from Bull 1 to Bull 2 or Bull 3 to Bull 4, 19500 is possible. But i don't think now is the time. The P/E and timing is a bit early. I think they should finish the correction and then release 09 year end report around next yr March. Usually take 2 months for correction in Bull market.

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