Bull & Bear

為甚麼是牛市?

在美國...
增加money supply係?經濟差的情況下發生...
增加money supply...減低interest...
在生意角度看成本低了...
在投資角度看bond value高了...從而股票價格變得相對給引...

香港沒有能力控制自已的monetary policy...
但在高通漲...經濟好...又跟隨減息下...
港幣會depreciate...
但資產價格...樓價跟股市就會上漲...

美國面對的是短期和中期financial market信心問題...
貝爾斯基是因為financial market短暫信心問題而借不到cash...並非市場其他銀行沒有cash...
美國政府做得很好就是很快做了擔保...解?了短期信心問題...和financial cashflow問題...
至於中期的...
美國銀行賠錢是因為bond market信心問題...
那些mortgage back securities 是變相derivatives...
因為市場信心...這些MBS市價跌得很厲害...加上有些MBS跟本沒有市價...
美國銀行只能在這刻大量撥備...
但撥備並不是realised loss...只要仍然有principal and interest repayment...
當信心回復時...就能回撥...

股票是買將來的...不是現在...沒有信心風險...?豐怎會有多於6厘股息...

irst of all... how do we define a bear market???

* In terms of fundamentals... GDP drop to -ve... unemployment rate rise... Lending money start to shrink... we cannot find all of these at present moment in Hong Kong...
* In terms of technicals... someone define it as index drops more than 20%... someone defines it as the 50MA dropping below 250MA...
* I have my own definition... I define it to be a dropping of index in around or more than 1 year of time...
* Thus...from my own definition... In last 20 years... the bear markets that HK experienced are...
* 94-95...97-98...00-03...
* I defined 87 and 89 as corrections only...


Now I will try to eliminate why the market is not bear at present...

* From my definition... if the market is bear... it has to drop below 20500 again...
* if it drops below 20500... it will be a prolonged dropping period... and will last for around a year from last Nov...
* However...we cannot see Hong Kong has the fundamental financial and economic environment to support the bear market...
* If there will be a bear market... it has to be influenced by US or mainland China...


Will US has a bear market???

* Surely the property market of US has dropped... however the major property stocks in US has already drop by around 50% which has reflect around 20% dropping in property price already...
* Keep in mind that the DowJone does not have major property stocks in it...


So is the sub-prime crisis gone already???

* My answer is that the investment banks is majorly impacted by both the cashflow raising difficulties... and the market value drop of the mortgage backed securities...
* The cashflow raising difficulties has been solved in the Bear Stern case from the Federal...
* Market value drop is a matter in faith... the reserve that has been made in the unrealised lose in the market value securities held by investment bank will improve in the future...


So what will make US going into recession???

* Continuous reduction in property price...
* Increasing in bad debts from other lending segments such as credit cards and personal loans...
* Substantial reduction in the consumer spending behaviour...
* I believe the chance in observing the above facts is not great... but there are still chances...


China market

* The bull market of China only start from mid 2005...
* if it is bear market right now... this will be the shortest bull market I have ever seen... and given current China fundamentals...


My portfolio

* I build up my portfolio when HSI was 22xxx... I believe there is 70% chance of bull market...


Portfolio Risk

* The risk is certainly the current market is bear market... if it is a bear market the HSI will drop below 20500 again in 3rd/4th quarter...
* the index may result in 16000 to 18000...


How to reduce the risk

* I will review the market environment in mid May to see whether the chance of Bear market increase or not...