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Tuesday, May 29, 2007

HSI 2007-05-29 Weekly Analysis

五月中有個volume 勁大,衝唔上去。
四月至五月個volume 係向上升。
暫時下跌volume 係向下,不過這個week 未完。
VSA 最大問題係你唔知幾時先叫做high volume。可以放量再放量,所以係好難估。

Friday, May 18, 2007

3328.HK VSA

1) small hammer - Demand enter
2) bigger hammer - Demand entered but the volume is less than the previous bar
3) No demand because the close is lower then the previous close and the volume is less than the previous 2 bars
4) Supply entered
5) No supply & test fail
6) Test bar & test success

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Volume Spread Analysis

-- up bars with excessive volume = weakness
-- down bars with excessive volume = strength
-- up bar with low volume means mark-down can begin (time to short)
-- down bar with low volume means mark-up can begin (go long)
-- down bars, narrow spread (diff between H & L), low vol = bullish
-- up bars, low vol, near resistance = bearish
-- wide spread, high vol, near trend line = expect trend line break
-- small spread, small vol, near trend line = expect trend line bounce

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

VSA 941.HK

1 ) big volume + big dark WRB imply selling pressure but hidden buying demand
2) there is a buying demand becuase it rises from the low
3) the demand is dimnishing for the next 2 bars becuase of diminishing volume therefore no demand bar--> the professional smart money doesn't want to buy in high price
4) a big dark WRB indicates the supply entred the maket with ultra high volume but hidden buying demand
5) becuase the 1st WRB has supply pressure, the momentum will induce the 2nd as a supply bar although there is demand in ultra high volume, the demand is little
6) the supply diminish a bit as well as the volume
7) a extremly ultra high volume bar open on the high and close at its low indicates a Up thrust? but also hidden demand
8) the volume is relatively high and close above the preivous bar, it means the selling pressure is diminished and demand entered
9) no demand bar and then suddenly below $66.6
10) the demand is entred as it reboune a bit

Volume Spread Analysis

1) Volume + WRB

2) find WRB with Ultra High Volume

3) consider demand / supply dominate the price in uptren or downtrend

4) find low volume bars (no demand / supply and some test bars / maybe both)
* No Demand : A bar/candle with volume less than the previous two bars/candles closing up (or equal) from the previous bar/candle for No Demand.
* No Supply : And closing down or equal for No Supply.

sometimes there will be high volume tests or Up Thrust on high volume
1 ) high volume test: close on or near its high - make a lower low
2) Up Thrust: cloes on or near its low - make a high her

5) test bar (for demand / supply)
2) Usually doji, hammer with long shadow

A test should follow a sign of strength and if successful (immediate rising market), is a good indication of an upmove.
A failed test (no immediate rise, The Dog That Didn't Bark as I think DBPhoenix puts it) is a sign of weakness.An upthrust is a test in reverse (sign of weakness, followed by an up bar closing on its lows).As I said earlier, tests following a strong sign of strength (wide spread down bars on high vol) are a favorite of Tom's, and form the 'W' or double bottom.I can't see that tests are tradeble without taking into account the context, etc. Some of the bars marked on the chart are 'No Supply' or 'No Demand' bars rather than tests, in my opinion. A test has to test something (whether there's any floating supply left), and that's normally down into an area of previous high supply(high volume, activity), trying to get the weak holders worried and catch stops. If they isn't any supply coming onto the market at these lower prices, this 'proves' that the floating supply has been removed, allowing prices to be marked up without any fear of meeting resistance from the weak holders dumping their supply onto the market at the higher prices. This is Tom's theory of course.
No supply is a down bar, narrow spread, with vol less than the previous 2 barsNo demand is an up bar, narrow spread, with vol less than previous 2 barsNo supply and No demand bars are great confirmation signals,

Right, back to the business of mastering volume spread analysis. I have been thinking about how to organise this thread and I have the following ideas:1. We will not discuss Tradeguider indicators and will not use charts from Tradeguider. We will keep the discussion limited to VSA only. Tradeguider is meant to be a learning tool. In order to trade with VSA, all we need is high, low, close and volume. That is all we will use.2. We will define and describe the major patterns and discuss what they represent and why. We will then discuss how this pattern can be used in practical purposes, in actual trading.

First some basic definitions:
Up bar = a bar that closes above the close of the prior bar
Down bar = a bar that closes below the close of the prior bar
Let's now define our first pattern: yes you guessed it, it's the test.
Test----Definition: A test is a sign of strength and occurs either during a down move, or during a retracement within an up-move. A test is defined by the following characteristics:- low volume- close near the high
Detailed description and rationale: A test is performed by large players who are bullish on the market, but are not sure about the amount of supply still present. The only way to find out is to mark the price down with a little selling. If the bears still have a lot of supply to offload, they are likely to sell into this weakness, resulting in a high volume and the bar closing near the low possibly with wide spread. If however the supply has been removed, there will be little selling from the bears and the volume will be light. Price will close near the top because there is no selling other than the little amount engineered by the bullish professional.
Reliability: TW describes test as the most important low volume buy signal. Reliability is increased if the test bar goes into new lows (i.e., the bears are not interested even when the price has reached a several-month low, meaning there is really no supply left). There is however a note of caution. A test is not a buy signal. It must be confirmed by immediate sign of strength (e.g., wide spread up bars on good volumes, bars closing near the highs etc).
Practical use: This is something I haven't worked out yet and this will take time and observation. I am not an expert in this. The purpose of this thread, as I said is to create a trading plan based on VSA. A possible practical use of tests could be to watch the next 3 bars. If no sign of strength appears, we ignore the signal and wait for the next one.


Friday, May 11, 2007


* Must not overbought
* volume diminshing (significant)
* NR1 volume is at least 2~3 times more than the previous 50 average volume
* NR7 volume should be less the the previous 50 average volume
* If the NR7 is same as the pervious average volume, the force to shoot up will be diminished
* If drop from the top, the bottom will have VERY large volume (very important)
* The NR7 - NR4 have a biger higher volume 2 times higher than NR3-1
* in congestion zone / empty zone
* the trend should be upwards
* fast to response
* risky with good reward
* tight cut lose / risk mangement
* SMA 50, 20 , 10 close / stick with each other ? for downtrend (No must still in uptrend for the price action)
* BB 14 days, 2 dev, closing up ( lower band move upwards quickly than upper band slowly moving downwards)
* uptrend (SMA 50, 20, 10 should upwards) maybe 10 cross 20 (stick together)
* Gap with high volume and then prints NR7
* Becareful other bearish pattern eg. Hell triangle, double top

Still difficult to think about this setup

Filter out OTC and low volume stocks
Show stocks where market is not OTCB
Band close is between 1.00 and 100
and average volume(30) is greater than 200000
and volume is greater than 50000

/*NR7 Price and Volume contraction scan

and average day point range(1) reached a new 7 day low
and volume is more than 20% below volume 1 day agoand average volume(2) is below average volume(5)

/*Find recent huge volume movers from the NR7 results
and average volume(5) is more than 50% above average volume(30)
and volume reached a new 12 week high within the last 3 weeks

/*Change date offset to get results from the past
and date offset is 0

/*Lines below are just for chart formatting.Change according to your preferences!
and draw ema(5) and draw ema(30)
and draw average day point range(1) 7 day high

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Sky's Note

* Fill Gaup --> drop --> buy
* many gaps --> don't buy
* Two big gaps in a row can think as a big gap. 1st Gap is more important than the 2nd gap.

* Adm & Eve --> Double top, Double Bottom
* Eve 10 Days , Adm 9 Days..not enough time to form Double bottom

* complete 3111 at least 40% above cloud
* bottom long tail ( good)

* For small stock
* Small bet
* Big reward, Big risk
* needs to test ---> SMA ?
* /\ /
/ \___*/

* 2Ma > 19 Ma

* 如我沒記錯; 尾段中間只要有 x 个 uxc (相連更好) ; 該段的頂位是 +bar並破前 ep便可以; 最重要看 typhoon 的 2个底的排列,及每段當中的 SIM ADJ.
* 1. the buying point of the occurance of typhoon: right after the final UXC appear or need to break (or close break) final UXC EP?
2. The correction, does it matter if there are many UxC before correction since the starting point of typhoon formation?
* A typhoon has 4 waves wor. Generally, TP is the moment passing through the HEP.

A long rising trend can be combined by several typhoons. There are many buying points. For the simple correction, we don't pay attention of how many UXC before. UXC should be more than DXC. To add more fliters, we can use 2XD, 2x0MA.

No exact formula bor. Because ones should pay attention on the style of UXC & DXC. For example: If an UXC is very short and no gap open Vs an long DXC w/o a support with Down gap; we should wait one more UXC in a better shape or even wait the 3rd UXC. Sky Sir taught us we should be careful on our investment and always do Testing & testing to confirm a trend b4 buying.

*Typhoon should be applied in Mid cap or blue chips, the best moment is used when price near or just touch 2xx line

Tuesday, May 8, 2007

Command Candlestick Errors for Beginner

* No price volume analysis

* Poor profit target methodolgy (fixed targets)

* Misinterpreted and called some patterns Haramis that were obviously another candlestick pattern...a pattern with a completely different risk management

* Traded Haramis and Dark Cloud Covers with the exact same size (ignoring the fact that these patterns have different risk levels and should be traded via either a different size or 1 contract traders managing the profit targets differently)

* Chased the trade signals and enter a trade far beyond the entry signal...reducing the odds of the trade resulting in a profit or breakeven trade

Learn how to use Hammer and Hanging man for brief:

Pattern & Entry Signal

I'm saying to do proper candlestick analysis you must wait for the price action to confirm via an Entry Signal. Thus, there are two signals..
One called a Pattern Signal and the other called an Entry Signal.
Simply, if the entry signal doesn't get confirmed...
The Pattern Signal didn't fail nor wasn't tradable.

The trading day after the Engulfing...presented a better entry price at a lower price in comparison to the close of the Bullish Engulfing.
With that said...Bullish Engulfing or any type of Bullish candlestick pattern implies there's a good chance for a bullish price reaction soon after the bullish candlestick pattern.
That bullish price reaction can occur anytime among the few trading day's after the bullish candlestick pattern. It does not imply the day after a bullish engulfing it will be a white candlestick with a higher close (breakout) although we would all like for such to occur.
Yet, the odds aren't very good that particular scenario (white candlestick with higher close) will occur.

That takes me back to the Pattern Signal and Entry Signal methodology...Waiting and looking for a bullish reaction to the bullish candlestick pattern in the first few trading day's soon after the bullish candlestick pattern.

However, I personally prefer to see it occur in only the first day after the pattern signal. Therefore, if a bullish reaction doesn't occur...Then the pattern signal wasn't tradable.

Last of all, a bullish engulfing although a bullish reversal signal...


The breakouts I like are the ones that are volatility spikes occurring after a period of declining volatility. These types of breakouts via volatility spikes tend to have a better chance at more follow-through. Further, these types of breakouts tend to be wide range bodies or expansion bars depending upon if your using candlestick charts (wide range bodies) or bar charts (expansion bars).

As to your comment about doji's and spinning tops. If they are small (small bodies or small ranges) in comparison to the WRB volatility spike...They are key clues that volatility has declined and is preparing for a volatility spike (up or down).

Personally, I like to see a minimum of three back to back (consecutive) small real bodies to indicate suitable declining volatility just prior to a volatility spike.

Other key clues involve key economic events and that's the easy part because there are many online sites with free economic calendars.
That's the basic to how I pick breakouts:
* Declining Volatility ---> Volatility Spikes
* Key Economic Events

Once you learn how to analyze volatility and understand its relationship with breakouts...You'll no longer be dependent upon indicators nor volume for breakout signals.

Next...the hard part is to determine if you enter upon the close of the breakout interval or wait for some quick pullback (usually no more than 2 intervals later) to enter the trade. Of course there's more to it but you'll have to figure that out in your chart analysis on how to enter a breakout...

Shooting star vs Inverted white hammer

Shooting Stars (dark or white) are very dependent upon the price action after the Shooting Star to give a trade signal when combined with the Shooting Star.
The body of Shooting Stars (dark or white) are more often than not above the bodies of the prior price action...Whereas the body of Dark Inverted Hammers tend to be within range (among and/or below) the bodies of the prior price action.
Shooting Stars are not trade signals all by themselves (not reliable) although many will test and trade them as such. Whereas the Inverted Hammer (dark) is dependent upon the price action before the Dark Inverted Hammer to give a trade signal when combined with the Inverted Hammer.
White Inverted Hammer are a little different. They behave very similar to Shooting Stars...Depedent upon the price action that occurs after to give it trade signals.
Shooting Stars are bearish reversal signals.
Inverted Hammers are bearish continuation and bearish reversal signals...the reliable ones. Inverted Hammers as bullish reversal signals (books, online resources and computer software codes)...Unreliable ones (low probability) trade signals.
Inverted Hammers are not trade signals all by themselves (not reliable) although many will test and trade them as such.
You should notice the key words above is the price action that occurs either before or after. That's what this thread is all about and I'm only discussing a few reliable patterns...Avoiding the common unreliable stuff which in turns keeps away most that don't believe candlesticks are reliable because I know what they have tested and traded.

By the way...I'm not discussing any in-depth details about White Inverted Hammers nor Shooting Stars (dark or white) in this thread.

Wide Range Bodies

My own personal preference is that a WRB has a body with a price area > body price area of each of the most recent prior three intervals.


Sunday, May 6, 2007

HSI 2007-May

(1) 2006 11月 12月的 徘徊區支持: 當時已暗示2007 年1月會upbreak 20000. 2007年3月再試該區不破, 後市可向好.

- 當時出現 MP LEGO 平衡向上, MACD卻反映出沽貨訊號. 當然要信 lego
- 19404 to 18623 是強力支持, 一上破會有 700 點波幅 乘 3 倍 到 5 倍升幅 ( 由 18623 加 2100 點 =20723
- 當時TYPHOON 出現
- 在有不利消息都不跌, 必須看好.

(2) 看方格A - 下跌不穿 (1) 徘徊區支持 及 1984年廷伸出來的 23年支持線( 中英談判開在1984年, 是香港命運的轉捩點) 後市可向好.

- 方格A: 1月到2月 升穿 1月3日的20554 之後的 typhoon底雖然是一底高於一底, 但 都是 陰燭底. 事後才知是TRAP. 3月2日一穿方格底19385, 量度跌幅可到 16500 ! 不可不沽清再等低位買.

- 1月24, 2月8, 2月23 的 MACD 再出叫沽; 但我與 mmc 沒听SKY SIR 呼籲 沽多一些是因為貪心想在 21150 才沽突.

- 之後大跌 近 2500 點. 但是23年支持線3月5日在 18664. 淡友攻不跛, 後市反而各好.

- 之後大跌 近 2500 點. 但是23年支持線3月5日在 18664. 淡友攻不跛, 後市反而各好.

(3) 以浪計 - 屢次不跌, 必入首注好棋

- 20971 開始的下跌以 A B C D E 運行, 配合上面的 四方格模式. 因2-3月時已有很多朋友們在綱中討論了, 這裡不多說.
- 我的看法是 (III)浪 ?在, 那怕調整, 不 over trade 便可以.
- 今次從3月5日18664的回升, 首目標19385在 3月12日已到; 次目標在 19969 在4月3日已? ; 在飲茶當天已討論了, 下一目標 20544 一收穿便可買貨, 目標是 20971 以上.

(4) 多看股票找 TYPHOON

- 不難發現的, 3月底開始多 typhoon 股票. 不買貨者亦不可大沽.

(5) 以 GAPTH 看

- 3月12, 3月21, 4月3 再給淡友 warning了.

這些方法要配合陰陽燭的 - 推移, 速率, 對比, counting, testing "5粒星"; 再加上 跌急, 跌慢, 唔跌, 穩定, 起升, 反彈, 回升7步曲 的週期來引導思考.

當時有人說技術反彈,美國地產有問題,通脹加劇, 股價太貴, 中東局勢問題,五仔盈虧,宏調,A 股太貴,HSI牛左成半年有多等等,所以唔信為真。
再望好可能雙頂,睇淡,中國宏調,五月effect, A 股泡沫。
carry-trade 日本yen 同日本加息

可惜,最後自已入市理由,林森池話見底,回到61.3%以上,想學短炒。形勢開始不妙,見五行三保係咁上,但自己驚個Hell Tranigle !!!
結果06' 報告出後,很多公司股價其實是合理的。
跌不穿18600 的密集區


太貪心,諗住最底位入,結果兩個plan 都無做到
1 ) 係18600 到入一d
2 ) HSI 的 rsi 到oversell 時入貨
要執行自己的plan 入少少貨先