frankly, for most full time traders, this "analysis" is just simple as ABC. the most difficult part is learning to be humble and bend your knees, follow the market obediently (whether you like it or not), just like a dog chasing a bone which is threw away by its master...
"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b742$1@hkux.net...another sharp analysis !! Good!"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b5df$1@hkux.net...if there is no USD diversification undertaking at present, unwinding of yen crosses should have already sent GBP below 1.92, EUR 1.28. USD/CAD below 1.18/1.19 is another sign of dollar weakness..."Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b448@hkux.net...Good point, sound logical, maybe that's also part of the deal in the China visit last year"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b3b7$1@hkux.net...don't forget Ben has to keep interest rate at relative high levels to stabilize USD helping global CB to reduce USD holdings! if USD diversification were happening at a FED fund rate of 2-3%, we would have seen USD index at 70 some months ago..."Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b1ae$1@hkux.net...rich poeple holding most USD assets.I am not sure of this point but I like your analysis in the whole paragraph, good logic"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9af29$1@hkux.net...6. Would Bern do anything with CPI currently still above 2%, interest rate cut is out of question, push the M3 to 20% annually? Will he try to make up a figure of 1.5% or below in the following month to give him a perfect excuse to cut ratecut rate = accelerate the decline of USD which could push CPI>3%, bet no rate cut until Q4remove some "volatile" components in the CPI and mark it down to 2% then, they have made similar adjustment b4, and it won't be the last one. Economy or the USD, something has to give. Did I hear "Regretably..." in 1987?subprime market = poor people, and rich poeple holding most USD assets, will you sacrifice the value of USD to save the poor? by the way, cutting rate=injection into stox mkt which is incompatible with the engineered slow down of stox mkt. crude but true fact..."Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9a5d9@hkux.net..."Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9a3d4$1@hkux.net..."Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e99f2e$1@hkux.net...1. why Greenspan gave such speech in early this weekbelieve or not, this is a engineered "cool down" by G7, to slow the stock mkt esp in euro and emerging mkt in asia80% of what I am thinking2. how the yen would move furthermulti-week 115-120 consolidation before next move to 110I have no strong view on this currently3. what is the liquidity situation and thus how all asset market will reacteven after BOJ raise 0.25% 2 more time, interest rate is only 0.75%, where can you find an alternative funding ccy with interest rate <1%Japan is only part of the whole liquidity picture. Moreover, interest rate is not the current market focus. The focus may change soon, but why make up your own mind b4 the market tell you to do so?4. what is the position of the fund who has jumped on the bandwagon to long gold, believing 700 is the next stop, has they cut their loss or still holding the buck?funds are forced to buy gold at whatever price because of the tremendous increase of subscription, and large funds are actually buying with very low leverage, their cut loss or not is not a issue hereSo it worked both ways? and forced to sell in redemptions? How about those momentum buyers?5. how DJIA, S&P 500, Shanghai, BRIC/emerging markets will react, any margin calls to meet in these markets for the fund managers, next LTCM, Red Kite (unlikely as at today)?don't worry, we're only dealing with healthy stox corrections not crashes..Not sure, but tend to agree6. Would Bern do anything with CPI currently still above 2%, interest rate cut is out of question, push the M3 to 20% annually? Will he try to make up a figure of 1.5% or below in the following month to give him a perfect excuse to cut ratecut rate = accelerate the decline of USD which could push CPI>3%, bet no rate cut until Q4remove some "volatile" components in the CPI and mark it down to 2% then, they have made similar adjustment b4, and it won't be the last one. Economy or the USD, something has to give. Did I hear "Regretably..." in 1987?plenty of food for thought in the weekendCharts are useful, but to me, Charts without fundamental doesn't sound good enough to me3. what is the liquidity situation and thus how all asset market will reacteven after BOJ raise 0.25% 2 more time, interest rate is only 0.75%, where can you find an alternative funding ccy with interest rate <1%Japan is only part of the whole liquidity picture. Moreover, interest rate is not the current market focus. The focus may change soon, but why make up your own mind b4 the market tell you to do so?this is indeed very important, we have to differentiate between a cyclical partial unwinding and structural unwinding of yen crosses may carry total different implications to stox mkt, at present, still expect a range of G/J 220-250 in 2007
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